Seminars: 2016 Winter/Spring

Seminars

2016 Winter/Spring

 

Péter HÁRI (CX-Ray): Hálózatelemzés az üzleti világban: úri hóbort vagy világmegváltó eszköz? - Hungarian language lecture

Hol és hogyan térül meg a szervezeti hálózatelemzés alkalmazása egy vállalat működésében? Van-e egyáltalán hozzáadott értéke a hálózatelemzésnek? Mit és hogyan érdemes prezentálni a döntéshozóknak? Hári Péter szervezetpszichológus, tanácsadó, a CX-Ray Kft. ügyvezetője tart előadást tapasztalatairól és a hálózatelemzés üzleti világban való alkalmazásáról.

 

Roberta SINATRA (CEU CNS): Quantifying patterns of scientific success

Our current approach to understanding success is driven by the belief that predicting exceptional impact requires us to detect extraordinary ability. Despite the long-standing interest in the problem, we still lack a clear understanding of how performance emerges and evolves in time.

In contrast to individual ability, we quantify and model success as a collective phenomenon: for something to be successful, it is not enough to be novel or appealing, but we all must agree that it is worthy of praise.  If we accept the collective nature of success, its signatures can be uncovered from the many pieces of data around us using the tools of network and data sciences. In this talk I will focus on individual impact in science as a way for testing our ability to measure and predict success. By studying changes in individual productivity and impact, as measured by influential publications, I will show that impact is distributed randomly within a scientist’s sequence of publications. This random impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, skill and luck, unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success and allows to accurately predict the evolution of a scientist’s impact indicators, from the h-index to cumulative citations.

The uncovered patterns point towards a general, quantitative theory of success, that can offer actionable information towards a quantitative evaluation and prediction of impact dynamics in different contexts, from science and arts to entrepreneurial activities and software development.

 

Barnabás SZÁSZI (ELTE PPK): The role of monitoring in decision making - basic research and potential applications

How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? What is their confidence based on? When do they stick with the first answer that comes to their mind and when do they decide to deliberate more? How can we use the research findings in policy settings or to help ourselves in our everyday life?

 

Denis TATONE (CEU Cog Sci): Representing transfer-based relations in infancy

Humans engage in resource transfer to initiate and maintain a number of social relations, each characterized by its specific directive standards (relational models). Crucially, transfer-based relations have been considered a stable feature of our ancestral social ecology. On these premises, we hypothesize that humans may have evolved a tendency to interpret the occurrence of resource transfer as a diagnostic cue of underlying social relations. Compatibly with this hypothesis, we will show that infants possess the conceptual repertoire necessary to represent interactions based on resource transfer (such as giving and taking), and interpret these as instantiations of different social relations.

 

Szabolcs SZÁMADÓ (RECENS): Reputation and cooperation in humans

Reputation is one the defining features of humans. Reputation is often mentioned as key ingredient of cooperation in large societies. However, there are different ways in which reputation can promote cooperation. Here I review models of cooperation in which reputation plays a role in order to identify shared features and potential weak spots. Shared features include: whether reputation is public or private, whether it guides partner choice or strategy choice. Reappearing weakness is the spread of reputations and the honesty of such communication. I discuss both shared features, weaknesses and potential solutions.

 

Krisztina TIMKO (University of Helsinki): Gender and Leadership in the Weak-Link Game

We study the effect of gender and the effect of the selection process on leader effectiveness in laboratory experiments using the ‘weak link’ coordination game. Participants can volunteer for the leader position, and one of the volunteers is selected to be the leader. Leaders can send non-binding text messages (suggestions of a certain effort level) towards their followers before all group members make their decisions. We reveal the gender of the leader. The treatment variation consists of whether the leader is randomly selected or elected by group members. Our main finding is that groups with elected leaders coordinate on higher effort levels. Under the election condition, male leaders are more effective than their female counterparts. However, the election effect outweighs the gender effect. Our findings underline the importance of employee participation in choosing group leaders. We also find that organizations might benefit from reconsidering their gender imbalance in top-level positions.

 

András VICSEK (Maven7): Változások hálójában - Hungarian language lecture

A menedzsment szakirodalom alapján a szervezeten belüli változási kezdeményezések 70%-a elbukik. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy ennek hátterében leginkább az áll, hogy az emberek nem értik a változás szükségességét, a saját szerepüket a folyamatban és mindez ellenálláshoz és bizonytalansághoz vezet. A hálózatkutatás segítségével azonosíthatók azok a hálózati csomópontok, akinek a bevonásával felgyorsítható a kommunikáció, erősíthető a bizalom a folyamat iránt. Emellett azonosíthatóak azok a kommunikációs töréspontok, amelyek akadályozzák a hatékony információáramlást. Az előadás során esettanulmányokon keresztül mutatom be a felhasználási lehetőségeket.

 

Kitti BALOGH & Zoltán VARJÚ (Precognox): Magyar nyelvű tartalmak elemzése - Hungarian language lecture

A Születésház Egyesület 2015. március 1. – 2016. április 30. között lezajlott projektje azt a célt szolgálta, hogy hozzájáruljanak a magyar szülészeti ellátórendszer egyenlő módon hozzáférhetővé válásához és a nők méltóságát tiszteletben tartó, szakszerű ellátás biztosításához. Ennek keretében négy közösségben (Pécs: István-akna, György-telep, Szakácsi, Told) készítettek mélyinterjúkat közel harminc nővel. Cégünk az interjúelemzői munka támogatásához, illetve kiegészítéséhez készített egy alkalmazást. A szoftver lehetővé teszi a dokumentumokban történő szabad szavas keresést, az interjú részleteket ún. facetekbe (kategóriákba) rendezi topik modellezés segítségével, továbbá a szövegek szentiment- és emócióelemzését is megjeleníti szófelhők formájában.

Balogh Kitti, a Precognox statisztikusa és Varjú Zoltán, a Precognox számítógépes nyelvésze előadásukban bemutatják, milyen lépéseken keresztül juthatunk el a nyers szövegektől az analitikai dashboardig open source eszközök segítségével.

 

Imre DOBOS (Corvinus University of Budapest): - Hungarian language lecture

 

Ágnes HÁRS (Kopint-TÁRKI) & Dávid SIMON (ELTE)Hungarian doctors working abroad: applied network sampling and results of the research

The emigration of doctors is an important policy question concerning everybody, which is well-connected to the anomaly of the health care’s general situation in the academic discourse – the problem of doctor shortage. The doctor migration is not new and not a Hungarian phenomenon. The continuously growing tasks and possibilities of health care, and the demographic trends generate increasing demand for doctors, resulting in an increasing migration of doctors. The measuring of the doctor migration’s phenomenon seems easy, but instead of using ambiguous data usually the migration intentions are being measured – which is easier to ask, than examining the actual process. 

We used experimental sampling for gathering data among doctors currently working abroad. Using our research’s new data collection we examined the explanatory factors and the extent of doctor emigration, considering the effects that incite and retain migration in the case of Hungarian doctors, who work abroad or already had migration experience. In the first part of the lecture we will introduce our network related sampling technique and the related problems emerged. In the second part, we are summarizing the results of our research especially the factors that influence the doctors’ work abroad and their related expectations. Using statistical models we examined how the life- and working conditions affect the odds of working abroad and the emerging patterns.